CHAPTER ONE
The term time series refers to one the quantitative method used in determination pattern in data collected over time e.g weekly monthly, quarterly or yearly.
Time service is the statistic tool or methodology that can be used to transform past experience to predict future event which would enable the researcher or organization to plan.
It gives information about how the particular case of study has been behaving in the past and present and such information can be used in prediction The number of people treated for malaria fever at the otan Ayegbaju management hospital. Comprehensive health centre otan. We are going to seen how change occur over mouths in each year in the occurrence of the disease in the hospital. As a result of this, we will be able to know certain factor responsible for increase or decrease in the rate of infection of the disease over the period of time.
Record of time series data can be made in the following ways:-
LONG TERM TREND COMPONENT
This can be referred to the general path in which time series graph appear to follow over a long period of time, in other word, it is the long-term increase or decrease in a variable being measured over time for example a company planning her expense on goods to produce in the next three or four years has consider demand at a particular time.
Y Downward trend Y upward trend
t t
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF TREND
SEASONAL COMPONENT
These are sort term variation from the trend that occur regular with the passage of time series of many products like ice cream, soft drink, ran during ileya turkey during chrismas and new and year period are subjects of such variation. There changes are visually identical or almost identical in natures that follow during
Y
t
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF SEASONAL CHANGE
CYCLICAL COMPONENT
Data collected how every, they can contain cyclical effect in a time series are represented by wave-like fluctuation around a long term trends. The change occurs in economics activities due to some facture like booms. Recess. Cyclical fluctuation repest them selve in a general pattern in the long-term. But occur with different frequencies and intensities.
Thus, they can be isolated but not totally predicted
y
t
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF CYCLICAL CHANGE
IRREGULAR OR RANDOM COMPONENT
This venation cannot BE attributed to any of three previously discussed component in the sense that is unpredictable.
Irregulars flotation can be cause by many factor such as war, flood drought and other human as action. Two type of irregular variation may exit in a time series viz. minor and major irregularities minor irregularities show up as serivtooth like pattern are under the long term trend. These irregularited are in organization long term operation:
Major irregularities are significant one-time unpredictable change in the time series due to such external and uncontrollable factors asan oil embryo, war drought e.t.c
Y
t
GRAPHICAL PRESENTATIOPN OF IRREGULAR VARIATION
MODELS OF TIME SERIES
We usually denote the component of time series as T,TS,C and I: There Are Two Types Of Modern That Are Appropriate For Joining Component Of Time Series these moderns are additive and multiplicative modern.
The additive moder assumes that the valve of the original data is the sum total of other four elements it is:
T=T+S+C+I where
T is value of the originally conserved data (dependent)
T is the value of secular or trend
S is the value ofr cyclical venation and
I is the value of irregular venation
Mufti active modern on the other hand assumes that the value of the observed data is the Y = TSCI
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
one of the factor that determine the population of a country, state local government e.t.c is death rate, that is to say, the more the disease infected the population of such an area and vice-versa. The fact prompted the writer into the study of quarterly number of people given treatment for malaria at the comprehensive health centre otan ayegbaju, in addition to that it is done to know weather infected people come to the hospital fur test or they stay back due to the old custom self medication.
In order to carry our the analysis data will be collected from daily record of the hospital at record department over some years to get all necessity information so as to carry out computation and predict about the nearest future by using secondary method of data collection.
This project work was carried out on the number of people treated for malaria fever between year 2001 to 2010. The data was collected from the comprehensive health centre Otan Ayegbaju osun state.
AIM AND OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
Data used for research are of two main sources: these source are primary and secondary data.
Primary data are fresh data which are collected for the task at hand. An example of such is census registration for cards.
Secondary data on the other hand are data dreaded in existence. They are originally collected for some purpose other than research current problem. They can be collected from school, hospital organization, government agencies, newspaper, monthly or annual report e.t.c thus a secondary data is used in this project.
1.4 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
As we know that a researcher is bound to face certain problem. various problem were encountered before during and after data collection
The problem are:-
Poor storage, which make the transfer of data difficult Data were not properly recorded and in some cases, we have missing value.
Also data for some period are missing from the record office: those were available were poorly recorded this establishing one of the major.
Disadvantage of a secondary data usage data
collection :- before the data was released to me, I had to present a cover letter from the HOD and my student identify card and also promised that the data would be used for statistical purpose only.
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